Examining the “green light” on the base paths; When, where and who.

The term “greenlight” has been used to describe a player who does not require the coach in order to approve a stolen base attempt, they are free to steal at their own volition. 

A combination of sprint speed, time to home, pop time, and a pitcher's ability to hold on runners decide whether or not a player should steal a base. In order to make a definitive decision on who deserves a green light on the basepaths, 2019 pop time and 2021 sprint speed data was analyzed. Based on our research, we created a table to examine these metrics on a percentile scale.  If a player is in the 80th percentile, the player has a 78.3% chance of successfully stealing a base. If runner 80% or above and catcher in 40% poptime then a player should have a greenlight. Assuming an average time to home pitcher on the mound.

Austin Barnes was examined as a catcher in the 40th percentile. His poptime is 2.09. 

Case Study: 

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 

In determining who should receive a “greenlight” we illustrate theoretical situations within a game based on our research.  In our hypothetical study, we examined San Diego Padres runners and Dodgers pitchers and catchers. 

Example One:

Tie game, top of the 8th, Trent Grisham on first, 1 out, Jimmy Nelson pitching, Austin Barnes catching. 

This is an example of a situation where we give Trent Grisham a greenlight. Based on our percentile table above, Grisham's sprint speed of 27.9 would categorize him in the 80th percentile. Austin Barnes on the other hand has a 2.09 pop time which puts him slightly below the 30th percentile. Factor in Jimmy Nelson's slow time to the plate and this situation presents an ideal green light for a baserunner to take advantage of the situation.   

Example two:

Examining elite pop and quick time to home with elite sprint speed.  

Situation: The New York Yankees Gary Sanchez (1.93 pop time)  and Gerrit Cole (1.28 time to home) are in the field against the Minnesota Twins and Byron Buxton is the base runner on first. Even though Buxton possesses elite percentile sprint speed (28.9 ft/s), our data suggests that Buxton should not have the green light given the elite defensive performers.